How likely is it that the Ivory Billed Woodpecker is not extinct? !Spotted Currently at the JREF forums, there is a big debate going on about possible Ivory Billed Woodpecker sightings. This bird has been thought to be extinct for over 50 years, and no reliable sightings that I am aware of have come forth. Unless one wants to count very blurry and out of focus images (apologies to Mitch Hedberg, maybe the bird itself has evolved out of focus?). Amongst enthusiasts, this bird seems to be bordering on an obsession to many, and any refutation of supposed evidence is met with hostility. How likely is it for this bird to not actually be extinct given what we know about the destruction of its habitat and how it was hunted?

It's not entirely out of the question. There have been many previous cases of animals that were not sighted for years eventually showing up again.

The ivory-billed woodpecker _normally_ requires hardwood forests (see Wikipedia), but the problem with assuming that the animal is gone because the hardwood forests were largely cleared is that we can't be sure that the bird could not possibly adapt to another environment, at least for a while (e.g. the population growth might be negative, but it might take a while for the last animals to disappear).

So given that the habitat of the woodpecker is not a blasted wasteland and is not entirely urbanized, I'd be surprised if one could come up with any firm probabilities aside from, "Likely extinct, but don't bet too much on it."