Artificial intelligent assistant

Designing a casino cashback program Let's say a casino is considering offering a cashback program whereby it would return 50% of player losses twice a month. The casino has a house edge of 1% on each game. What steps could the casino take to ensure that they remain profitable? One way would be to enforce a minimum number of plays per user per cashback period- what would that minimum number of plays be? Let's say the casino can't ban or ID users.

Suppose the casino offers only one game: you bet £1, then with probability 49% you win £2 (otherwise you lose your wager). Your expected net is -£0.02. Now if you know that half your total losses will be refunded, here's how it breaks down.

One bet: Win £1 with 49% probability, lose £0.50 with 51% probability, expected gains £0.23½.

Two bets: Win £2 with $.49^2$ probability, wash with $2\cdot.49\cdot.51$ probability, lose £1 with $.51^2$ probability. Expected gains £0.2201.

Three bets: Expected gains £0.33015.

...

47 bets: Expected gains £0.6824276...

It seems that for this simple game 47 is the best you can do. The specifics will vary, but probably the rough result will remain the same: you can expect to win back a fraction of a single bet.

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