Artificial intelligent assistant

Conditional Probability Suppose the following are true: $\bullet$ The probability of a random kindergartener having chicken pox at any given time is $2\%$. $\bullet$ Among kindergarteners who have chicken pox, $75\%$ have red spots. $\bullet$ Among kindergarteners who do not have chicken pox, $1\%$ have red spots. Given that David, a kindergartener, has red spots, what is the probability that David has chicken pox? * * * My reasoning so far is from 1000 kids, 20 have chicken pox and 15 of those children have red spots. So then the answer would be 15/1000 = 3/200. I'm not sure that this address the third bullet point though.

> My reasoning so far is from 1000 kids, 20 have chicken pox and 15 of those children have red spots. So then the answer would be 15/1000 = 3/200. I'm not sure that this address the third bullet point though.

Your reasoning is correct that: of $1000$ kids, $20$ kids are expected to have the pox and $15$ of these to show spots.

To address the third bullet point, you also need to note that we expect $980$ kids _not to_ have the pox and $9.8$ of these _to_ have spots (on average).

So of the $15+9.8$ kids who have red spots only $15$ have the pox. Thus the probability of having the chicken pox given red spots is:$$\frac{15}{24.8} = \frac{75}{124}$$

* * *

More formally: $$\begin{align} \mathsf P(C\mid R) & = \frac{\mathsf P(C\cap R)}{\mathsf P(C\cap R)+\mathsf P(\
eg C \cap R)} \\\\[1ex] & = \frac{2\%\times 75\%}{2\%\times 75\% + 98\%\times 1\%} \\\\[1ex] & = \frac{75}{124} \\\\[1ex] & \approx 60.5\% \end{align}$$

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