Artificial intelligent assistant

Probability theorem question The bank has been robbed by one thief. Police has set n-suspects in a line (from 1 to n). The suspects say's true with chance p and they lie with chance (1-p). They asked the n'th suspect if (n-1) suspect has robbed the bank, then they asked (n-1) suspect if (n-2) suspect has robbed the bank and so on until the first suspect. First suspect said that he didn't robbed the bank. What is the probability that the first suspect didn't robbed the bank, depending to what the n-th suspect said. (Conditional probability, the n-th suspect can said that (n-1) suspect has robbed the bank or not).

Using the definition of conditional probability, $$P(\text{$1$ didn't rob} \mid \text{$n$ said $n-1$ robbed}) = \frac{P((\text{$n$ said $n-1$ robbed}) \cap (\text{$1$ didn't rob}))}{P(\text{$n$ said $n-1$ robbed})}.$$ The problem ought to have given you a prior probability for each suspect being the robber. With no further knowledge, one might assume each suspect is equally likely to be the robber.

$$\begin{align} &P((\text{$n$ said $n-1$ robbed}) \cap (\text{$1$ didn't rob})) \\\ &= \sum_{i=2}^n P((\text{$n$ said $n-1$ robbed})\cap (\text{$i$ robbed})) \\\ &= (n-1)\frac{1}{n}(1-p) + \frac{1}{n}\cdot p. \end{align}$$ The denominator can be computed similarly.

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The other conditional probability $P(\text{$1$ didn't rob} \mid \text{$n$ said $n-1$ did not rob})$ can be computed in a similar fashion.

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