Frog-riddle: What if you can only lick one frog? Question about the famous frog-riddle: < What if you can lick only **one** of the two frogs on the left? I would say that then your chances of survival are 25%: 50% for choosing the frog that didn't croak, times 50% for that frog having the right gender. Is this correct? (If so then I should in that case go for the frog on the right)

Each of the cases Male Male, Male Female, Female Male has $1/3$ probability and you have $1/2$ chance in the latter two cases.

Therefore the probability would be $1/3 \times 0 + 1/3 \times 1/2 + 1/3 \times 1/2 = 1/3$.

You should therefore go to the frog on the right with 50 percent chance of being female as you say.