If an event has a X% chance of happening this year, what are the odds of it happening on any given day background: I am not great at statistics and probabilities. I read something in the news (can't remember what right now, probably something Trump related) that said an event was X% chance of happening this year. I was idly wondering how to figure out what the daily chance of that event happening would be. I am thinking that it may be as simple as taking the odds and dividing it by the time period -- it makes sense in my head. So if something had a 100% chance of happening in a year and all days are the same weight, then it would have a 50% chance to occur in the first 1/2 of the year and 50% chance to happen in the last 1/2 of the year. Assuming that logic holds, then could I assume that each day would have a (1/365) = 0.274% chance of said event happening?

Reviewing old open questions -- the answer was given in the first comment to the question:

Yes, (a) if each day is equally likely and (b) it cannot happen on two or more different days.