Probability of what exactly was calculated by Chevalier de Méré? Chevalier de Méré knew that probability of rolling six with a six-sided die is $\frac 16$. He reasoned that his chance to roll six with 4 tries is $\frac 46$, which is not the case. It is $1 - (\frac 56)^4$. Which event's probability was calculated then? That is, which event has probability of $\frac 46$ in an experiment of throwing a six-sided die four times?

There are several events that have a probability of $\frac46$ in that experiment. For example:

* Rolling a number smaller or equal to $4$ on the first throw
* Rolling a number larger or equal to $3$ on the second throw
* Rolling a number between $2$ and $5$ (inclusive) on the third throw



And on and on and on.