Artificial intelligent assistant

Manipulation of the $6/49$ lottery If one manipulates the lottery $6/49$ by putting $6$ additional balls with the numbers $1,2,3,4,5,6$ into the urn, what is the probability of the manipulation being busted on live-television? The probability of the manipulation being busted after the first two draws is $\frac{12}{55} \cdot \frac{1}{54}$ but what is the further approach? Some help is much appreciated.

There are $\binom{55}6$ total draws, and we need to count how many draws have two balls with the same number. This is best done with inclusion-exclusion.

There are $\binom{53}4$ ways to draw both $1$s (we have to choose the two $1$s and $4$ of the other $53$ balls), and the same number of ways to draw both $2$s, etc. Simply adding these up would count all the draws which have (say) both $1$s **and** both $2$s twice, so we need to subtract those.

There are $\binom{51}2$ draws which have both $1$s and both $2$s, and the same number for every other pair of choices from $\\{1,2,3,4,5,6\\}$. Once we subtract all those off, we need to add the draws which have three pairs; there are $\binom63=20$ of these.

So the final answer is $$\frac{\binom61\binom{53}4-\binom62\binom{51}2+\binom63}{\binom{55}6}\approx 0.06.$$

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